Four scenarios for AI in healthcare, on a 10-year horizon.
UCB Biopharma · Digital Healthcare Foresight
The brief was a single question: how will AI reshape healthcare consumption in the next 10 years? Answering it under deep uncertainty meant naming the digital healthcare capabilities UCB would need, whichever way the next decade breaks.
Leading the foresight methodology across a UCB and Bakery team, we built a Python script to run a systematic literature review on 1,200+ academic papers, triangulated against 300+ news items, 40+ business reports, and 30+ interviews with patients, physicians, and pharma leaders.
We identified 15 megatrends, refined them to 6, then to 2 complementary lenses: Patient Empowerment and R&D Speed. Crossing the lenses on a 2x2 matrix produced four 10-year scenarios, each with named consumer behaviors, North Star metrics, AI healthcare journeys, and benchmarks of who is preparing today.
The framework was extended into a regional intelligence engine for UCB Germany, translating the global megatrends to a structured local signal-monitoring framework.
We added an outside-in layer to UCB's strategic planning, naming the digital healthcare capabilities that keep the company's strategic edge across whichever scenario lands.